On March 13, 2009 CBS News reported that "$50 trillion dollars in global wealth has been erased over the last 18 months".
Investors lost trillions of dollars in mortgage backed securities, real estate investments, retirement funds and the stock market. Millions of people lost their jobs and millions of families lost their homes and life savings. Hundreds of banks failed and over a million businesses declared bankruptcies. The ramifications of the financial crisis are still being felt in 2011 with banks closing even after the economic recovery of 2010. In many countries, the pressures of national austerity measures, inflation, tax increases and civil unrest are on the rise as taxpayers ended up paying the bill for the banking bailouts, failed government policies and economic stimulus programs.
We were perplexed by how many governments, Nobel-Prize winning economists and investors failed to foresee a crisis of such magnitude and on such a global scale. We also saw the rise of new economic and investment celebrities and the decline of others. We were fascinated with a handful of experts whose claim to fame is their prediction of the financial crisis. When these experts warned the public, they were either ignored or ridiculed. So we decided to study the subject and see who are these experts? Did they actually predict the financial crisis or just claim that they did? Why did the other experts miss the crisis? What lessons can we learn from these two important years in history? And more importantly, can these lessons help us anticipate or prevent future similar crises?
Many critical questions have been asked by financial journalists and bloggers around the world and lately few academic researchers ventured into the topic. But until today, we did not find comprehensive or concrete answers that satisfied us. So, we decided to embark on this not-for-profit research project in the public interest. It is our hope that our work contributes, even if in some small way, to the improvement of financial journalism and academic research on this topic.
The project attempts to provide answers to the following five sets of research questions:
To answer the preceding questions we spent hundreds of hours researching the Internet to find the most relevant news stories, articles, interviews, blog posts and statements about the subject. We ended with a list of what we consider to be the world's top Wall Street executives, economists, investors, financial journalists and opinion leaders (pre and post the crisis). Collectively, these experts have the most influence in shaping the public debate and awareness of the financial markets, academic research, government policies and the actions of Wall Street investors.
Who are the subject of our research?
The Who's Who of Wall Street and the US Economy: (Names are listed in no particular order)
Top Government Officials and Policy Makers:
Federal Reserve Chairmen Paul Volker, Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretaries Timothy Geithner, Hank Paulson, John W. Snow, Paul O'Neill and Robert Rubin. Current and former members of the Council of Economic Advisors, Austan Goolsbee, Cecilia Rouse, Katherine Baicker, Matthew J. Slaughter, Edward P. Lazear, Donald B. Marron, Christina Romer, Arthur M. Okun, Edwin G. Nourse, Leon H. Keyserling, John D. Clark, Roy Blough, Robert C. Turner, Arthur F. Burns, Neil H. Jacoby, Walter W. Stewart, Raymond J. Saulnier, Joseph S. Davis, Paul W. McCracken, Karl Brandt, Henry C. Wallich, Walter W. Heller, James Tobin, Kermit Gordon, Gardner Ackley, John P. Lewis, Otto Eckstein, James S. Duesenberry, Merton J. Peck, Warren L. Smith, Paul W. McCracken, Hendrik S. Houthakker, Herbert Stein, Ezra Solomon, Marina v.N. Whitman, Gary L. Seevers, William J. Fellner, Paul. W. MacAvoy, Burton G. Malkiel, Charles L. Schultze, William D. Nordhaus, Lyle E. Gramley, George C. Eads, Stephen M. Goldfeld, Murray L. Weidenbaum, William A. Niskanen, Jerry L. Jordan, Martin Feldstein, William Poole, Beryle W. Sprinkel, Thomas Gale Moore, Michael L. Mussa, Michael J. Boskin, John B. Taylor, Richard L. Schmalensee, David F. Bradford, Paul Wonnacott, Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Alan S. Blinder, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Martin N. Bailey, Alicia H. Munnell, Janet L. Yellen, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Rebecca M. Blank, Martin N. Bailey, Robert Z. Lawrence, Kathryn L. Shaw, R. Glenn Hubbard, Mark B. McClellan, Randall S. Kroszner, N. Gregory Mankiw, Kristin J. Forbes, and Harvey S. Rosen
Top Wall Street CEOs and Investment Bankers:
Brady Dougan, CEO of Credit Suisse; Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America Merrill Lynch; Baudouin Prot, CEO of BNP Paribas (BNP Paribas CIB); Vikram Pandit, CEO Citigroup (Citi Institutional Clients Group); Robert E. (Bob) Diamond Jr., CEO of Barclays Capital; Josef Ackermann, CEO of Deutsche Bank; Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs; Stuart Gulliver, CEO of HSBC; Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase (J. P. Morgan Investment Bank); James P. Gorman, CEO of Morgan Stanley; Oswald Grübel, CEO of UBS (UBS Investment Bank); Nicholas Moore, CEO of Macquarie Group; Stephen Hester, CEO of Royal Bank of Scotland; and Kenichi Watanabe, CEO of Nomura Securities
Top Wall Street Investors:
George Soros, Warren Buffett, John Paulson, Brian Rogers, Susan Byrne, David Herro, Ron Baron, Daniel Loeb, Eddie Lampert, Carl Icahn, Martin Whitman, Mohamed El Erian, Arnold Van Den Berg, Bruce Berkowitz, Carl Icahn, Charles Brandes, Chuck Akre, David Dreman, Donald Smith, Donald Yacktman, Edward Lampert, Edward Owens, Glenn Greenberg, Ian Cumming, James Barrow, Jean-Marie Eveillard, Joel Greenblatt, John Griffin, John Hussman, John Keeley, Julian Robertson, Lee Ainslie, Mario Gabelli, Martin Whitman, Mason Hawkins, Michael Price, Prem Watsa, Richard Aster Jr, Richard Perry, Robert Rodriguez, Ron Baron, Ronald Muhlenkamp, Ruane Cunniff, Seth Klarman, Steve Mandel, Tom Gayner, Tweedy Browne, Wallace Weitz, and Wilbur Ross
Top Wall Street Economists, Experts and Opinion Leaders:
Renowned economists, financial analysts, investment advisors and intellectuals, including Nassim Taleb, Peter Schiff, Dean Bakers, Med Jones, Bill Ackman, Robert Gnaizda, Raghuram Rajan, Brooksley Born, Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini, Anirvan Banerji, Len Zacks, David Gardner, Tom Gardner, Philip Davis, Matthew Bradbard, Frederic Ruffy, Michael Filloon, Robert Weinstein, Ian Bezek, Joseph Shaefer, Michael Anderson, Chimin Sang, Kurtis Hemmerling, Osman Gulseven, Andrew Wilkinson , Frederic Ruffy, Philip Davis, Rocco Pendola, David Van Knap, Marc Gerstein, Hao Jin, George Spritzer, Lawrence Weinman, Frank Constantino, Dirk Quayle, Brad Case, Alan Brochstein, Michael Johnston, Tom Lydon, Brad Case, Richard Shaw, Todd Feldman, Prieur du Plessis, Chris Ciovacco, Leith van Onselen, Tim Iacono, Felix Salmon, Cullen Roche, John Mason, John Mauldin, Karl Denninger, Ben Strubel, Matthew Bradbard, Michael Filloon, Michael Fitzsimmons, Marc Chandler, Cliff Wachtel, Andrew Wilkinson, Ralph Shell, Steven Kiel, Philip Mause, Nicholas Marshi, Michael Filloon, John Petersen, Joseph Shaefer Kurt Wulff, Clayton Reeves, Ian Bezek Xiaofan Zhang, Glen Bradford, Jeff Pierce, Tom Lydon, Chip Krakoff, Bill James, Roger Nusbaum, J. Bruun, Irfan Chaudhry, David Hunkar Martin Hutchinson, Marc Chandler, John Mauldin, Charles Lewis Sizemore, Gary Gordon, Ananthan Thangavel, Greg Ho, Alan Brochstein, Chris Ciovacco, Marc Chaikin, Chuck Carnevale, Robert Prechter, Brian Foglia, Dian Chu, Ralph Shell, Lionel Barber and Jeff Miller
Top Economic Think Tanks and Research Organizations:
Brookings Institution, American Enterprise Institute, Center for Economic Policy Analysis, Institute for International Economics, American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Cato Institute, Center for Economic Policy Analysis, Century Foundation, Committee for Economic Development, Economic Policy Institute, Economic Research Council (London), Employment Policy Foundation, Economic Strategy Institute, Heritage Foundation, Institute for International Economics, International Institute of Management , Jerome Levy Economics Institute, Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, Kiel Institute of World Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research, National Center for Public Policy Research, Progressive Policy Institute Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Theoretical Research Institute United for a Fair Economy, Urban Institute, Washington Institute for Policy Studies, Greenlining Institute, and Center for Economic and Policy Research.
Top Economics and Financial Journalists:
Matt Winkler,Josh Tyrangiel, Andy Serwer, David Schlesinger, Chrystia Freeland, Matthew Bishop, Ken Auletta, Susie Gharib, Paul Kangas, Linda O'Bryon, Gretchen Morgenson, Steve Burkholder, Steve Burkholder, Nanette Byrnes, Christopher Palmeri, David Skeel, Martin Z. Braun,Alan Murray, Kevin Delaney, Jonathan Krim, Darren McDermott, Neil McIntosh, Almar Latour, Li Yuan, Greg Bartalos, John Kimelman, Ed Lin, Fleming Meeks, Bob O'Brien, Steven Sears, Johanna Bennett, Murray Coleman, Alexander Eule, Teresa Rivas, David Englander, Miriam Gottfried, Grace L. Williams, Richard Rescigno, Lauren R. Rublin, Phil Roosevelt, David Schutt, Andrew Bary, Michael Santoli, Thomas G. Donlan, Jonathan R. Laing, Jay Palmer, Jack Willoughby, Bill Alpert, Sandra Ward, Jacqueline Doherty, Kopin Tan, Robin G. Blumenthal, Lawrence C. Strauss, Leslie P. Norton, Vito J. Racanelli, Gene Epstein, Mark Veverka, Jim McTague, Tom Sullivan, Anita Peltonen, Christopher C. Williams, Dimitra DeFotis, Susan Witty, Neil A. Martin, Theresa W. Carey, Mike Hogan, Suzanne McGee, Rhonda Brammer, Pauline Yuelys, Teresa Vozzo, Darrell Preston, Liz Willen, David Dietz, Eddie Baeb, William Selway, Michael Marois and Andrew Pratt, Darren Gersh, Guy Adami, Pierre Alexandre, Daniel Altman, Brett Arends, Erin Arvedlund, Peter Barnes, Maria Bartiromo, Robert A. Bennett, Janet Bodnar, Deirdre Boltonm, Marcus Brauchli, John Brooks, Erin Burnett, Thom Calandra, David Callahan, Justin Catanoso, Bill Coffin, James C. Collin, Peter Cook, Jim Cramer, Janet Elizabeth Dyer, David Enrich, Sharon Epperson, Pimm Fox, Charlie Gasparino, Bill Griffeth, Christine Harper, John Helmer, Michael Hudson, Paul Kangas, Tom Keene, Ken Silverstein, Zachery Kouwe, Lawrence Kudlow, Jean Lee, Michael Lewis, Betty Liu, James Michaels, David J. Morrow, Scott Patterson, Carl Quintanilla, JJ Ramberg, Louis Rukeyser, Merryle Rukeyser, William S. Rukeyser, Rick Santelli, Erik Schatzker, Stephen B. Shepard, Andrew Ross Sorkin, Betsy Stark, Allyson Stewart-Allen, Gerri Willis, Tanya Beckett, Nils Blythe, Louise Botting, Sally Bundock, Mickey Clark, Declan Curry, Evan Davis, Peter Day, Stephanie Flanders, B. C. Forbes, Steve Forbes, David Goodhart, Liam Halligan, Simon Jack, Martin Lewis, Norman Macrae, James Morgan, Robert Peston, Jeff Randall, and Andrew Verity, Jim Jubak and Jon Markman, Jack Otter, Rachel F. Elson, Nelson Wang, Megan Jordan, Ray Martin, Alexis Christoforous, Edwin Finn, Randall W. Forsyth, Jonathan Dahl, Janet Paskin, James B. Stewart, Jeff Nash, Steven Kutz, Jack Hough, Bill Bischoff, Jonathan Hoenig, Jilian Mincer, AnnaMaria Andriotis, Catey Hill, Jonnelle Marte, and Sarah Morgan, and Eric Schurenberg, Jill Schlesinger, and and Greg Ip
By compiling this list we had a starting point for our research. For better or for worse, the collective opinions and actions of these people influence the performance of the US economy and many of our investment decisions.
We recognize that this is not an exhaustive list and we expect to add more names as we progress in our research. We'd like to reiterate that the objective of this research project is the study of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the key experts connected with it. The objective is not to debate economic or financial theories. There are numerous academic research projects that cover these theories. So, we did not cover historical scholars like Adam Smith, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, Vilfredo Pareto, and others.
Continue to the next research sections:
Economic predictions from the world's top experts on the financial crisis
(C) Economic Predictions